Race 11 (Saturday, June 23, 2018: 5:00 p.m./ET; 2:00 p.m./PT)
7 furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
Trainer Bob Baffert has had quite the run these past couple of months, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) with JUSTIFY before his star three-year-old went on to become the thirteenth Triple Crown winner. This Saturday, it’s back to Southern California for Baffert, as he saddles two contenders in Santa Anita’s feature race, the San Carlos (G2). Let’s get to the analysis:
#1 TOP OF THE GAME makes his first start since being claimed for $62,500 by trainer Ryan Hanson, who is one-for-seven first off the claim. This colt beat Grade I winner HOPPERTUNITY and IRISH FREEDOM in the Comma to the Top Stakes in October but has failed to fire in his past five races since that career-best effort. He also appears to be better going two turns. Looking elsewhere.
#2 ST. JOE BAY is another one making his first start off the claim. He was acquired by Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler for $62,500 just before finishing third behind #8 STONE HANDS and #3 EL HUERFANO in a May 28 allowance race. He’ll need to turn the tables on those two runners and beat some other tough shooters signed on as well. Improvement is needed.
#3 EL HUERFANO will need to run faster to defeat #8 STONE HANDS, who finished two-and-a-quarter lengths in front of this guy on May 28. His last win came one year ago in a second level allowance race going a mile. Seems like he may be best used underneath in vertical wagers if anywhere at all.
#4 AMERICAN ANTHEM took nine months off from October to June and came back running, winning an allowance race at Churchill Downs. It was a nice comeback race by this Bob Baffert trainee and his last workout at Churchill Downs, a bullet drill, indicates he’ll be cranked for this. He ran some awfully big races last year, winning the Woody Stephens (G2) and hitting the board against Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner ROY H in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1). The one to beat.
#5 HORSE GREEDY is the second John Sadler entrant in the race. Like his stablemate, he makes his first start off a claim for the Sadler barn, having just run third in an allowance optional claiming race. He was claimed for $40,000 that day and faces a lot tougher here. Won’t be an easy task.
#6 TOUCHING RAINBOWS looks for his fifth consecutive win while making his stakes debut. Clearly ‘Rainbows has some talent, but this will be the acid test for him. Flavien Prat is in the irons for trainer Phil D’Amato.
#7 STONE HANDS could have been purchased for $25,000 in his 2018 debut, when the son of TAPIZAR ran in a claiming race and won by seven lengths. Luckily for trainer Doug O’Neill, nobody took him, and since then, this guy has been a roll, winning a pair of allowance races by good-sized margins. Last time out, he finished well ahead of #3 EL HUERFANO and his best makes him a contender for a minor award, at the very least.
#8 DABSTER is lightly raced, but has been tough against allowance company, winning a pair of allowance races since breaking his maiden in January, 2017. His only graded stakes try resulted in a poor effort in the Malibu (G1), finishing well behind Grade I winner CITY OF LIGHT and stakes victor EDWARDS GOING LEFT. On paper he looks like he’ll need to run the best race of his life to win, but you know he’ll be as ready as possible with Bob Baffert calling the shots.
SELECTIONS
- #4 AMERICAN ANTHEM – Too classy for this group.
- #6 TOUCHING RAINBOWS – Four wins in a row.
- #7 STONE HANDS – Merits respect off recent form.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 DABSTER – The ‘other’ Baffert.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over my other three picks in exactas and trifectas, plus a token win bet on my longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$6 Exacta: #4 AMERICAN ANTHEM over #6 TOUCHING RAINBOWS and #7 STONE HANDS and #8 DABSTER ($18).
$5 Trifecta: #4 AMERICAN ANTHEM over #6 TOUCHING RAINBOWS and #7 STONE HANDS and #8 DABSTER ($30).
$2 Win: #8 DABSTER
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