Race 4 (Saturday, June 23, 2018: 3:09 p.m./ET; 12:09 p.m./PT
Mile on turf (three-year-old fillies)
The feature race on Saturday at Belmont Park is the Wild Applause Stakes, named after the royally bred daughter of NORTHERN DANCER who won a pair of graded stakes races in 1984 at Saratoga and Belmont. Let’s analyze the field of seven signed on:
#1 LADY SUEBEE is the first of three runners entered for trainer Chad Brown. After running second in her first three career races, she broke her maiden on the Aqueduct dirt on March 18 and came back to win an allowance on May 5, which was her first try on turf. She returns to the lawn in this spot while making her stakes debut. She’s never routed, though the bottom side of her pedigree screams route being out of a Touch Gold mare (the aforementioned sire won the Belmont Stakes). Maybe.
#2 BRATTATA is the second Chad Brown entrant. The daughter of MORE THAN READY broke her maiden three starts ago at Gulfstream and came back to run third in the Herecomesthebride (G3). Her most recent run, a 25-length loss, came over a sloppy surface, so one can toss that race out. Jose Ortiz hops aboard; he wins at a 28% clip when riding for the Brown stable. Contender.
#3 PUNKED (IRE) completes the trio of Chad Brown entrants. After finishing fourth in a key allowance race at Keeneland (the first and second place finishers both came back to win), she rebounded with a nice victory over this turf course on May 13. Those two starts have been her only two races in the U.S., as she started her career in Ireland. Javier Castellano rides. Another one to consider from Team Brown.
#4 FERDINANDA has finished first or second in four starts since joining the Barclay Tagg stable. This gal lost by a neck to #3 PUNKED in the May 13 allowance race over this course and finished ahead of #7 GOT STORMY in the Sanibel Island Stakes at Gulfstream two starts back. The winner of that race, FIGARELLA’S QUEEN, came back to win an allowance race against older fillies and mares. She is very consistent, thus meriting much respect. Major player.
#5 MO START is one of two runners entered for trainer Todd Pletcher and will run only if the race is moved to the main track. Weather forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers on Saturday. This gal broke her maiden by a large margin in her career debut and came back to win by double-digit lengths over a sloppy track at Pimlico on May 13. If Elmont, NY is pelted with rain and the race is moved to the dirt, look out.
#6 TAKECHARGEDELILAH is the other Pletcher entrant and coincidentally, also a main-track only entrant. This filly is lightly raced, with just three starts to her name. Since finishing second in her career debut, she has taken a pair of one-mile dirt races against maiden and allowance company, respectively. Like her stablemate, she is also in with a big chance if the race is transferred to dirt.
#7 GOT STORMY won the Penn Oaks on June 2 and only lost by a length-and-a-half in the Edgewood (G3) to the talented TOINETTE and Grade I winner RUSHING FALL. A repeat of her last two efforts makes her the one to beat.
SELECTIONS
- #7 GOT STORMY – Has terrific recent form.
- #3 PUNKED – Looks like the most talented of the three Chad Brown runners.
- #4 FERDINANDA – Consistency makes her a major player.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY: #5 MO START – Talented filly looks to remain unbeaten if the race is moved to the main track.
WAGERING STRATEGY
If the race stays on turf, I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice. If the race is moved to dirt, I’ll wager my entire bankroll on my longshot value play, who has already shown she has tons of talent on the dirt.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
IF THE RACE REMAINS ON TURF:
$5 Exacta Box: #3 PUNKED with #4 FERDINANDA and #7 GOT STORMY ($30).
$20 Win: #7 GOT STORMY
IF THE RACE IS MOVED TO THE MAIN TRACK:
$50 Win: #5 MO START
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