Charles F. Quiroz: $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3)

Race 9 (Saturday, June 23, 2018: 5:10 p.m./ET; 2:10 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

The feature horse race for 2018 in the state of Ohio, the $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3), takes place this Saturday at Thistledown. A full field of 12 three-year-olds will get a chance to earn the $300,000 winners share of the purse, with a quarter of the field having already competed in one of the three Triple Crown races. Let’s dive into our analysis and begin the discussion with the inside post position:

#1 TAKEDOWN makes his graded stakes debut in this spot. The son of TAKE CHARGE INDY won an allowance race at Laurel Park three starts back but has not been a threat to win in two starts since that allowance victory. Note this colt lost by about a half dozen lengths to #7 DIAMOND KING (6/1 on the morning line) in the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 21. Improvement is needed.

#2 FLAMEAWAY freshens up after a 30-length loss in the Kentucky Derby (G1). This ‘capper is forgiving of that run considering it was against extremely tough company over a sloppy track. And if you look at his other races this year, they have been very good, finishing second to GOOD MAGIC in the BlueGrass (G2) and winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) earlier in the winter, defeating Grade I winner CATHOLIC BOY in the process. Looks like the one to beat.

#3 LONE SAILOR ran a better than looked fifth in the Preakness (G1) last time out, running on late and finishing only two lengths behind Triple Crown winner JUSTIFY. However, this colt has only won once in 10 lifetime starts, with that lone victory coming over a wet track against two-year-old maiden company at Saratoga. His best run against winners came three starts ago when he finished second to NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby (G2). All that said, here’s another contender who is one of the more classier runners in this field and Irad Ortiz Jr. flies in to ride, which only adds to the appeal.

#4 CALORIC was 173/1 when he lost by 15 lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two starts ago. He prepped for this race in the Tom Ridge Stakes, a six-furlong sprint, and finished fourth at 67/1 to #6 TRIGGER WARNING. His most recent win came at the $16,000 claiming level at Gulfstream. Will be a massive long shot.

#5 TITLE READY is one of two runners in this race trained by Steve Asmussen. His only graded stakes try came in the Rebel (G2) where he ran fourth, beaten five lengths, to next out Arkansas Derby (G1) winner MAGNUM MOON. His most recent start came in the Sir Barton on Preakness Day, finishing second to the talented Bob Baffert trainee Ax Man. A good run wouldn’t be a total surprise.

#6 TRIGGER WARNING has done his best work sprinting. His only two career route tries resulted in 20 and 76 length losses, respectively. Passing.

#7 DIAMOND KING won the Federico Tesio Stakes two starts ago, but came back to run poorly in the Preakness (G1). But that was his only career run over a wet track, he is four-for-six lifetime over a fast track, is improving with age and expected to get a good stalking trip in here. One to consider.

#8 MACHISMO broke his maiden sprinting and has since come back to finish double digit lengths behind the winner in three straight graded stakes races, all of which came routing. Looking elsewhere.

#9 O’KRATOS won the Marine Stakes (G3) at Woodbine over their synthetic surface on May 13 and makes his first career start on dirt in this spot. He is by PADDY O’PRADO out of a SPEIGHTSTOWN mare, so the pedigree indicates he should be okay with the new surface. He has two bullet workouts heading into this race and gets the services of jockey Channing Hill. Interesting item.

#10 CORE BELIEFS only lost by a length and half to Belmont Stakes (G1) competitor BLENDED CITIZEN in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont last month. His only other race since breaking his maiden was a third place finish behind champion JUSTIFY and Grade I winner BOLT D’ORO. Joe Talamo ships in to ride. Wouldn’t discount.

#11 DREAM BABY DREAM is the second Steve Asmussen trainee in the race. The son of INTO MISCHIEF has failed to finish first in five straight races against winners. His lone career trip to the winner’s circle came on November 25 at Churchill Downs against maiden company. Needs to pick up the pace.

#12 LAST DROP OF WINE looks to snap a seven race-losing streak. His best races have come going one turn and he has failed to be competitive against much easier company than what he finds here. Would be a big surprise if he were to win this.

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