KEY RACES REVISITED

There are two times of year that lend themselves more to key races than any other: 

– Three-year-old stakes events in the first part of the year designed to attract Triple Crown prospects.

– Two-year-old maiden special weight events at summer marquee tracks (Saratoga, Del Mar, etc).

Summer is the ideal time to spot and take advantage of Key Races. The Triple Crown may be over but there are still plenty more three-year-old stakes all around the country. And two-year-old races are popping up more and more as young juveniles are just getting ready to roll.

Three-year-old added money events in the first part of the year are specifically designed to attract future Triple Crown stars. In the Winter and Spring, tracks offer more added money races restricted to three-year-olds in the first 75 days of the year with the goal to attract quality talent. As a result, many Triple Crown preps lead to a gate full of high ability runners squaring off, with the also-ran runners having ‘break-out’ victories down the road, which leads to a number of key races.

Key races (coined by author Steve Davidowitz in his classic handicapping book Betting Thoroughbreds) are defined as races that in hindsight were much stronger than normal. The idea is that when a number of horses exiting the same race go on to win their next starts, it implies that the race they all came from was a particularly strong heat, and all other runners should be given extra credit when they start next.  

Conversely when all the horses out of a race go on to be badly beaten, the race is identified as a ‘negative key race’ and all subsequent runners exiting the race should be viewed with skepticism.

Unfortunately too many handicappers are quick to label a race a Key Race as soon as it yields multiple winners, or a Negative Key Race as soon as multiple runners return to run poorly. Instead, spot true Key Races and Negative Key Races by looking past the obvious multiple next out winners criteria.  Avoid jumping to conclusions (and prematurely jumping on a Key Race bandwagon) by paying attention to the right scenarios:

– Recognize that every race is likely to yield at least one next-out winner randomly, since all starters other than horses making their debut are by definition exiting some race.  

– Two or three winners is a positive sign but not unexpected in a large field, so simply looking for multiple winners out of a race is not enough.

– Look for potential key races that yield next-out winners that win at a higher class level or tougher racing circuit.

– Maiden races at marquee meets like Del Mar and Saratoga often fill fields where multiple stables enter their top prospects against one another. When they return in ‘normal’ maiden races, they often face much softer competition. 

Requirements to Play Key Races:

– Spot Key (and Negative Key) Races by looking past the obvious multiple next out winners criteria.

– Focus on high-class events at marquee meets to find multiple ‘better than average’ heats of maiden and allowance runners that should yield Key Races.

– Look to the lowest level of maiden claiming and claiming heats at a given track to find Negative Key Races full of horses to play against next-out.  They are unlikely to win any time soon — if ever.

– Anticipate that three-year-old added money events in the first part of the year will often become Key Races because they are specifically designed to attract future Triple Crown stars. 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

The post KEY RACES REVISITED appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER.

KEY RACES REVISITED posted first on https://tvgnetwork.tumblr.com